AERA Platform / IFRS Compliance Suite
IFRS Compliance Suite

IFRS 9 Expected Credit Loss

From portfolio segmentation to Monte Carlo simulation. AERA handles the full ECL lifecycle — staging, PD/LGD/EAD modeling, forward-looking macro scenarios, provision matrix, sensitivity analysis, and disclosure-ready output.

aera.cloud/ifrs/ifrs9-ecl/dashboard
A IFRS 9 — Expected Credit Loss Dashboard Q4 2026 Run ECL Total exposure (EAD) € 42.6M 384 positions Total ECL provision € 1.87M Coverage: 4.39% ECL P&L impact YTD € 340K +18% QoQ Weighted avg PD 2.8% Simulations 10K Monte Carlo ECL by IFRS 9 stage € 1.87M Total ECL Stage 1 € 380K · 12-month ECL Stage 2 € 890K · Lifetime ECL Stage 3 € 600K · Credit-impaired Portfolio risk map — Exposure vs PD Dot size = ECL amount Gross carrying amount (€K) → PD (%) → 0 2% 5% 10% 20% 500 2,000 4,000 6,000 SICR threshold
Full ECL lifecycle, from data to disclosure
Seven integrated capabilities that take you from raw portfolio data to auditor-ready ECL disclosure — with full transparency at every step.
Staging

SICR assessment and automated staging engine

Evaluate Significant Increase in Credit Risk across your portfolio using configurable triggers — rating migration, days past due, watchlist inclusion, sector stress indicators. Manual override with mandatory justification and full audit trail.

  • Multi-criteria SICR triggers (quantitative + qualitative)
  • Automatic stage migration with backstop rules (30/90 DPD)
  • Override workflow with approval chain and documentation
  • Stage migration report — period-over-period tracking
Stage migration matrix — Q3 → Q4 2026 To (Q4 2026) From (Q3) Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 289 94.2% 15 4.9% 3 1.0% 8 Cured 42 77.8% 4 7.4% 0 2 Cured 21 91.3% Net stage deterioration: 22 positions · Net cures: 10 positions · ECL impact: +€ 85K
Provision matrix

Aging-based provision matrix for trade receivables

The simplified approach for trade receivables per IFRS 9.5.5.15 — configure aging buckets, historical loss rates, and forward-looking adjustments. Automatic calculation of lifetime ECL by bucket with visual coverage analysis.

  • Configurable aging buckets (current, 1-30, 31-60, 61-90, 90+)
  • Historical loss rate derivation from write-off data
  • Forward-looking adjustment overlay per macro scenario
  • Roll-rate analysis for PD migration between buckets
Provision matrix — Trade receivables Recalculate 0 5M 10M 15M € 16.2M Current ECL: €48K Rate: 0.3% € 10.4M 1-30 d ECL: €104K Rate: 1.0% € 6.8M 31-60 d ECL: €204K Rate: 3.0% € 4.2M 61-90 d ECL: €378K Rate: 9.0% € 3.1M 90+ d ECL: €1.14M Rate: 36.8%
Monte Carlo

Forward-looking ECL with Monte Carlo simulation

Replace discrete 3-scenario weighting with a full probability distribution. 10,000 simulations conditioning PD on macro variables (GDP growth, unemployment, credit spreads) produce P10/P50/P90 confidence intervals on the total ECL.

  • PD sensitivity to GDP, unemployment, and credit spreads
  • Configurable beta coefficients per macro driver
  • P10/P50/P90 output with distribution visualization
  • Scenario-weighted vs full stochastic comparison
ECL distribution — 10,000 simulations Seed: 42 Re-run ECL amount (€K) Frequency 1,200 1,500 1,800 2,100 2,400 P10 € 1,480K P50 € 1,870K P90 € 2,240K Mean: € 1,892K Std dev: € 285K VaR 95%: € 2,180K
Sensitivity

Macro sensitivity analysis with tornado chart

Understand which macro variables drive your ECL the most. Tornado chart ranks drivers by impact magnitude — GDP growth, unemployment rate, house price index, credit spread — showing upside and downside swings on total provision.

  • One-at-a-time shock analysis per macro driver
  • Configurable shock magnitude (±1pp, ±2pp, custom)
  • Tornado ranking by ECL impact
  • Stress test scenarios with combined shocks
ECL sensitivity — ±1pp macro shock Base ECL: €1,870K -€400K -€200K +€200K +€400K GDP growth -€310K +€380K Unemployment -€240K +€280K Credit spread -€170K +€210K House price idx -€90K +€120K Interest rate -€60K +€80K Favorable (+1pp) Adverse (-1pp)
Movement

ECL movement waterfall — period over period

Understand exactly what drove your ECL change. The waterfall bridge decomposes movement into new originations, derecognitions, stage migrations, parameter updates, model changes, and FX effects — meeting IFRS 7.35H disclosure requirements.

  • Opening-to-closing bridge with 7+ driver categories
  • IFRS 7.35H disclosure-ready format
  • Drill-down to individual position level per driver
  • Quarterly and annual comparison views
ECL movement waterfall — Q3 → Q4 2026 0 500K 1.0M 1.5M 2.0M 1,530 Opening +180 New orig. -120 Derecog. +250 Stage migr. +85 PD/LGD -28 FX -27 W/O 1,870 Closing Net change: +€ 340K (+22.2%)
PD/LGD/EAD

Credit risk parameter estimation

Model the three pillars of ECL: Probability of Default from rating transition matrices or roll-rate analysis, Loss Given Default calibrated to collateral and recovery data, and Exposure at Default with credit conversion factors for off-balance items.

  • PD term structure from transition matrices (1Y through lifetime)
  • LGD estimation with collateral haircuts and recovery curves
  • EAD with CCF for revolving facilities and guarantees
  • Parameter backtesting against actual defaults and losses
Credit risk parameters — Segment: Corporate Italy PD term structure Cumulative PD by tenor 1Y 3Y 5Y 7Y 0.8% 2.4% 5.1% 7.8% 12m PD: 0.82% vs 0.74% prior quarter LGD by collateral Loss given default rate Unsecured 80% Receivables 45% Real estate 25% Cash/gov bonds 10% Wtd avg: 42% vs 40% prior quarter EAD composition Exposure at default Drawn € 28.4M CCF × Undrawn € 8.6M Guarantees € 5.6M € 42.6M Total EAD CCF avg: 65% Revolving facilities
Disclosure

Automated IFRS 7 and IFRS 9 disclosure output

Generate all required disclosure tables: ECL reconciliation by stage, credit quality by risk grade, maturity analysis of gross carrying amounts, and sensitivity disclosures — in auditor-ready format with full source traceability.

  • IFRS 7.35H — ECL reconciliation by stage
  • IFRS 7.35M — credit quality by internal risk grade
  • IFRS 7.35N — modified financial assets
  • Export to XBRL, PDF, and Excel with audit annotations
IFRS 7.35H — ECL reconciliation Export XBRL € thousands Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Total Opening balance 310 760 460 1,530 New originations 120 45 15 180 Derecognitions (85) (25) (10) (120) Transfer to Stage 2 (60) 180 120 Transfer to Stage 3 (95) 225 130 PD/LGD/EAD updates 30 40 15 85 FX and other (10) (12) (6) (28) Write-offs (27) (27) Closing balance 305 893 672 1,870
See it in action
A walkthrough of the IFRS 9 ECL module — from portfolio segmentation through Monte Carlo simulation to disclosure-ready output.
Video coming soon
384
Positions monitored
10K
Monte Carlo simulations
3
Stage classification
XBRL
Disclosure-ready
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